Good news for crops as IMD predicts good monsoon
June 30th, 2008 | by admin |Rating: 0
Monday , June 30, 2008 at 1927 hrs There is some good news for Indian agriculture. The official weather forecasting agency, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its forecast and predicted that the cumulative rainfall in the four-month monsoon season, beginning June would be 100% of the long period average (LPA) of 89 cm.
The IMD’s forecast is subjected to a model error of +/-4%, which means that the rainfall can be in the range of 96% of the LPA to 104% of the LPA.
Along with the even spread of South-West monsoon rains predicted by IMD, the global forecast agencies have dispelled the fears of major flood situations, with exceptions at few places, by predicted the weakening of La Nina conditions (cooling of Pacific waters below normal) ?the factor responsible for floods across the globe.
Though the rainfall forecast is 100% of the LPA, the IMD has termed it as 憂ear normal?rainfall. This is because there is no categorization for normal rainfall in the IMD’s parameters. Rainfall in the range of 96% to 104% of the LPA is termed near normal, that in the range of 90% to 96% of the LPA is termed below norm and that below 90% of the LPA is termed deficient.
In its initial forecast made in April 16, this year the IMD had said that that the countrywide rainfall in the four-month monsoon season would be 99% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall for the period which is 89 cm subject to a model error of +/-5%.
In its revised forecast released on Monday, the IMD has said that the countrywide rainfall in July ?the month crucial for agriculture ?would be 98% of the LPA of 29.3 cm, subject to a model error of +/-9%.
It also said that the average cumulative rainfall over north-west India would be 96% of the LPA of 61.2 cm, subject to a model error of +/-8%. North-west India comprises of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab , Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh , Delhi , Uttaranchal and Uttar Pradesh. The rainfall over north-east India would be 101% of the LPA of 142.9 cm, subject to a model error of +/-8%. North-east India consists of Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya , Assam , Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura , Sikkim , West Bengal , Bihar and Jharkhand.
For central India consisting of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra , Goa and Orissa, the IMD has predicted rainfall amounting to…
