FACTBOX-Likely scenarios after Japan PM Fukuda resigned
September 2nd, 2008 | by admin |Sept 2 (Reuters) - Whoever succeeds Prime Minister YasuoFukuda following his abrupt resignation on Monday faces bigproblems, including a deadlocked parliament and pressure to callan early election.
Opposition parties took control of parliament’s upper houselast year, enabling them to delay parliamentary decisions formonths.
An election for the more powerful lower chamber, where theLiberal Democratic Party-led ruling bloc holds a huge majority,must be held by September 2009.
The following are some possible political scenarios.
* Frontrunner LDP Secretary-General Taro Aso, or anothercandidate, wins a party leadership election expected this month,rebuilds the government’s popularity and calls a general electiontowards the end of this year or early in 2009.
But even a strong performance in the election could leaveleave the LDP and its junior coalition partner worse off in thelower house, and would do nothing to resolve the stand-off withthe upper house. The LDP would have to try to lure oppositionpoliticians to boost its ranks in the upper chamber.
* The new prime minister fails to boost the LDP’s popularity,and delays the general election until after the budget is passedin March of next year or even closer to the end of lower houselawmakers’ terms in September 2009.
The main opposition Democratic Party would then have a chanceat forming a government, ejecting the LDP from power for only thesecond time in its 63-year history.
* There could be a realignment of loyalties among members ofthe ruling coalition and opposition parties, in an effort toforge a coherent majority in both houses. This could be formedalong policy lines or based on personal ties. Currently, both theLDP and the Democrats are mixed bags of lawmakers from across thepolitical spectrum, while in many ways the junior coalitionpartner, the New Komeito, is closer in policies to the Democrats. (Reporting by Isabel Reynolds; Editing by Rodney Joyce)
